Getting its expected value is much simpler than getting the distribution itself, since that's just the sum of the expected tries to get the i-th page for i from 1 to 7, each of which is 7/(8-i) (the inverse of the individual success probability, as getting to the next state just follows the geometric distribution). But for those who are curious: It's an application of the Inclusion-exclusion principle, since we're asking what the probability is that any of the seven pages has not yet been found. How the underlying formula that generates the shown distribution is derived in the first place is, of course, a slightly longer story, which I don't want to bother people with. I'm aware this isn't really important to Diablo players, just thought it might be a neat gimmick. Have a look, reading the axis titles and descriptions makes it pretty much self-explanatory!
The following is a visualization of how likely it is to take how long to complete the collection of all seven Cultist Pages: Thought I'd use the opportunity of many players out collecting Cultist Pages to familiarize people with some light statistical concepts. Last updated at 14:00:17 UTC Weekly Help Desk RAGE Loot Thread Trade Thread
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